USteve Jobs kwakuba udliwano-ndlebe naye wavuma ukuba "uyathemba abaxhamli bexesha elizayo kunye neziganeko zabo zexesha elide kunokuba abahlalutyi beemarike." Indlela umhlaba ubonakala ngayo kwiminyaka engama-25 nangaphezulu kwe-forecaster eyaziwayo kwinkalo yophuhliso lobugcisa kunye nesayensi, isayithi
Ray Kurzweil
I-American futurist iye yaziwa ngokuba yihlabathi ngenxa yobungqina bayo obuchanekileyo ngokusekelwe kwimizila yakutshanje kwisayensi kunye ne-teknoloji. Olu "bugcisa bezobuchwepheshe" alubonanga nje "ukuthatha" kwehlabathi ngeefowuni zamaselula, imishini yefeksi, i-robotics kunye ne-Intanethi, kodwa kwakhona yaxela ukuwa kwe-USSR kunye nokungaphumeleli koorhulumente bobukhosi kwiinkcukacha zehlabathi. Namhlanje, iziganeko zakhe zokuza kwangaphambili ziyamangalisa ngakumbi. Ubona inkqubela phambili yenzululwazi kunye nezobuchwepheshe ngale ndlela ilandelayo:
- Amandla ovimba. Kwiminyaka embalwa ezayo, amandla elanga aya kutshintsha ngokuthe ngqo indawo yeoli kunye neoli. Ngokweziganeko zikaRurzweil, iindleko eziphantsi ze-watt zelanga ziza kunciphisa ioli, igesi kunye namalahle. Ukongezelela, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla alanga ukusetyenziswa kwamandla alanga kwenza kube nzima ukusebenzisa izitshixo zamandla.
Izindlu, ezixhotyiswe ngeepaneli zelanga, ziya kuba namandla-ngokwaneleyo. Uninzi lwezixhobo zobugcisa kunye nezixhobo zingadliwa ukusuka elangeni okanye ezinye izinto ezikhoyo zamandla, ukusingqongileyo kunye nokuzimelela kwimiba yangaphandle kunye nezikhombisi. Isibikezelo esinethemba elivela kuRay Kurzweil sinokuthi sibe yinyaniso ekupheleni kwe-2020.
- Mayeza. Iminyaka elishumi iya kuba yinguqulelo kwiyeza. Iingcali "ezinkulu" ziya kuba yi-nanorobots, ezinamakhono amakhulu. Uncedo baya kuba nako "ukusisigxina", "baphila" emzimbeni womntu. Ekusebenziseni kwabo kuyakuba yimisebenzi yokuhambisa ukutya kwiiseli kunye nokususa izinto eziyingozi ngaphambi kokufunda umsebenzi wengqondo. Kwiminyaka elishumi baya kufunda ukujonga impilo yabantu, ukuhamba ngeemitha zegazi, nokukhusela ingozi yezifo ezinzulu. I-Kurzweil ilungiselela uluntu ngenjongo yokuba kwixesha elizayo zonke izifo ziya kutshabalala kwaye ixesha elide liza kuba yinto evamile kwimpucuko.
Nangona ixesha lokuphila ixesha elide libonakala lingenakwenzeka kubantu abaninzi, kunokuba kunokwenzeka namhlanje. Oogqirha baseYurophu bathetha ngesizukulwana esitsha, apho kukho iintsana ezinokubakho ngobudala. Banalo lonke ithuba lokuphila ngengqondo ephilileyo, imemori kunye nempilo yempilo ukuya kwiminyaka eyi-150. Iingcali zenzululwazi zithetha ukuba aba bantu kwiminyaka yabo engama-90 baya kuba noluntu kunye nabasetyhini abaneminyaka engama-40 "abadala" abaneminyaka engama-40 ubudala.
- Ingqondo. Ngo-2030, umgca phakathi kwekhompyuter kunye noluntu luya kubonakala kancinci. Ikhompyutheni yomntu iya kuba yinto enjengomncedisi ongenamntu ongenamdla, unxibelelwano oluya kwenzeka ngokuthetha kunye nempawu. Ngaphezu koko, uRay Kurzweil uyaqiniseka ukuba ezininzi iingcamango zabantu ziyayeka ukuba "yizinto eziphilayo." Ingqondo iya kufumana ubunzima be-disk enzima-ulwazi olulahlekileyo ngenxa ye-amnesia okanye utshintsho olunexesha elidala lunokubuyiselwa lula ngokulayisha ulwazi olungekhoyo entloko.
- Ingqondo yolwazi. Ngama-2040, ingqiqo engeyiyo-biological iya kuba namandla kangangokuthi ukucinga kwengqondo yabantu kuya kulahla zonke izinto ezinokubaluleka kwi-robotics. Ukusuka kubancedisi basekhaya abancedisayo baya kuhamba kuzo zonke iinkalo zobomi. Ngokomzekelo, baya kuba ngabaphathi abapheleleyo bezothutho kunye nezolimo. I-Nanotechnology iya kuphuma emgwaqweni omkhulu kwaye ingabandakanyi umngcipheko wokuqhuba iimoto ngabantu ezindleleni, kwaye iimveliso zokutya ziya kudala ukusuka kumoya omncinci, nangona kunjalo, njengazo zonke izinto.
- INanosystems. URay Kurzweil kwimisebenzi yakhe yesayensi ibonisa uluvo lokuba ingqondo yokuzibandakanya iya kubambisana nomntu ngoncedo lwe-cyberimplant, kwaye ekupheleni kweenkulungwane ze-XXI ze-nanosystem ziza kubonisa inxalenye ebalulekileyo yabantu. Ngokuqinisekileyo, kukho abo abangafuni ukubethelela ngobuntu babo, kodwa bona, njengemifanekiso yezinto eziyingqayizivele ze-biological, kuya kuba sekupheleni kokuphela. Kwaye ukuba unethamsanqa, ii-robot ziza kubangenisa kwiBhuku eliBomvu elincinci, kwaye ziya kuba zonke iindlela zokuzondla, njengomzekelo 'wobuThixo' owababelethela. Kodwa mhlawumbi akanenhlanhla ...
Ukubikezela okuthakazelisayo kwexesha elikude elivela kwixesha elizayo
UJan Pearson, i-Futurist, iNtloko ye-Futurizon (UK)
"Ngo-2050, iteknoloji yekhompyutheni iza kufinyelela kumgangatho ophakamileyo ukuba uluntu lugqithiselwe ngokupheleleyo kwi-supercomputer. Ngexesha lokufa komntu, i-device ekhethekileyo iya kuluhluza ingqondo yomntu ofayo, ukuphinda kubhale kwakhona iingxaki zombane ezixakile ze-neurons yengqondo yakhe kwimodeli ye-neurons kwikhompyutha. Ngombulelo kule "digitization", umntu, engaqapheli umzuzu wokufa, uya kuhamba ngokunyanisekileyo ukuba abe yinyani, apho ahlala khona ngonaphakade. "
URichard Watson, i-futurist (iBrithani enkulu)
"Iikhompyutheni ziya kukhawuleza ukunyuka kobundlobongela. Lindela ukuza kweenqwelo eziphambili ezinokuqulunqwa ngomfanekiso othize. Kwaye izigwenxa, kunye namaxhoba ngo-2050 ziya kubakho kwi-intanethi yewebhu ye-4.0. "
UJuan Enrique, i-futurist, umlawuli wekampani ye-Biotechnomy (iU.SA)
"Ngaphantsi kweempembelelo zeenkonzo ze-intanethi, i-plasticity entsha yengqondo ivela. Ukuhamba kweenkcukacha ezinkulu, ukuphindaphinda kwayo kwimithombo eyahlukeneyo, iziteshi ezahlukeneyo zokufikelela kuyo - konke oku akuvumeli ukuba lilibale. Kwinqanaba elincinane, naluphi na ulwazi oluhlala nathi. Ukungabikho kokugqitywa kunye nokugqithisa okukhulu kolwazi kuya kutshintsha iipropati zobuchopho: "inokucwangcisa" imisebenzi engaphezu kwesigidi ngaphezulu kunoko ngoku. I-Intanethi iqala ukusilawula kunye nekhono lethu, kwaye asikho i-intanethi. "
Igor Bestuzhev-Lada, i-futurologist, i-sociologist (iRashiya)
"Kuya kuba neprogram yekhompyutheni leyo, ukususela ebuntwaneni, mhlawumbi nangaphambi kokuba kuzalwe umntwana, iya kulungiswa ngumntu we-choleric okanye isangube, i-brunette enamehlo aluhlaza okanye ubunwele obubomvu obuphakamileyo beemitha ezingamashumi asibhozo. Umntu uyayeka ukuba ngumntu, uye kwenye inqanaba. Kule nqanaba, umntu uya kuba yintshaba kuye. "